The Mammoth Market Is In Strong Price Discovery Phase!

Market Summary – June 22 to July 13

This report is for the past three weeks (a new pattern is forming). The Mammoth Lakes MLS is reporting 20 real estate closings for the period ranging from a low of $378,000 to a high of $1,727,500. Of the 20 closings, all 20 were financeable properties and 11 were closed with financing. The closings included eight (8) mid-range condos and four (4) single-family homes under $1M. Three (3) of the four (4) highest sales were Snowcreek properties (it is that time of year). This same period last year there were only 13 closings..

The 10-year Treasury yield ended the period slightly up to 4.43%. Yawn. The 30-year conventional mortgage rate is being quoted around 6.85%. More yawn. I’m having more discussions about seller/owner financing. With all “safe” Treasury yields (even 20-30 year) under 5%, owner financing rates in the 6-7% or more range look attractive. Long-time /legacy owners and many aging boomers may see an advantage to selling their second homes with this strategy. The “stepped-up” basis concept is great for tax avoidance, but doesn’t satisfy many present-day needs or wants. With almost endless financing structures available to sellers and buyers, and corresponding tax strategies, it can make sense. Almost all lending in Mammoth comes with a minimum of 30% downpayment, so buyers are expecting that level, at least. That is pretty good security for seller financing. Buyers can circumvent paying plenty of lender related fees. Some CPAs are better at the financing structures/tax benefits than others, but they have their networks to reach out to. I had to think back, I’ve purchased three condos and two vacant lots in Mammoth with seller financing. They can be great deals for both buyers and sellers. We’ll see if it could become a trend.

Most of the newly passed Big Beautiful Bill is noise for real estate. The short-term tax benefits, many sunsetting in 2028, won’t have any impact on the Mammoth market. But, the 100% bonus depreciation has now been made permanent. This may spur a modest amount of activity as more high income W2 earners become familiar with the concept. It also helps those looking to build generational wealth, and this is a real segment of the Mammoth market. This time last year the 10-year was at 4.25%.

Condominium Inventory

At the period’s end the condominium inventory is up 21 to 136. The listings total still includes the last three (3) units at the Limelight, and now three (3) units at Outbound which is the old Sierra Nevada Inn on Old Mammoth Road. These are the new units that were added into the parking lot between the old restaurants and the miniature golf course. These were recently approved by the Town as condo hotel units. We’ll see what the market thinks about these properties. They now have competition. There were 31 new condo listings in the period and two (2) have gone to escrow. The condos that are selling are hit-and-miss. Some of the mid-range condos going to escrow are nothing special. There were many price reductions during the period and normally this wouldn’t happen until a little later in the summer. The recent era of “fishing prices” is over. One popular listing agent in the market appears to be recommending across-the-board 20% price reductions to his sellers. There have been listing cancellations too.

New and nice Snowcreek properties will sell this summer (they already are). The high sale of the period was a Phase V townhome on the back row overlooking the Forest Service meadow—one of my favorite locations in Mammoth. The other area that appears to be in the buyer’s focus is anything with good access to the ski lifts and preferably real ski-in and ski-out properties. These are usually more popular in fall and winter but they are in demand right now. As example, the period’s closings included strong sales at Bridges, Mammoth West, Snowbird (2), and The Summit. Units at TimberRidge, Chamonix and Mountainback went to escrow in the period. Village and Village periphery units also sold in the period including Grand Sierra Lodge, Mammoth View Villas, and Seasons Four. This time last year there were 96 condos on the market.

Single-Family Home Inventory

The inventory of single-family homes is up one (1) to 23. The under $1M market remains hot including the four (4) closings in the period and new sales on Pinecrest, Joaquin and Twin Lakes. The Graybear listing over $3M went to escrow and that listing is over $1200 per square foot—that could be a new threshold in the residential market. A nice listing on upper Forest Trail also went to contract. This time last year there were 19 home on the market.

A few new single-family vacant lots have come to the market, ones that are attractive and easy to build on, have sold quickly and for higher prices. Maybe the buyers in this segment of the market are finally figuring out the major additional expenses and hassles of developing on steep lots, especially up sloping lots. The Bluffs lot that sits on the “rim” between the almost renown (and highly photographed) modern mountain mansion and the new similar property under construction came to the market for $2M. Probably a bargain if you are in this league. Here’s a photo of the rim circa 1999 that I shot from a client’s helicopter—pre drones and any residential construction.

Pending Transactions

The total number of properties in “pending” (under contract) in Mammoth Lakes is down one (1) to 42 at period’s end. The total number of pendings in the aggregate Mammoth MLS (which includes outlying areas) is up seven (7) to 70. Last year it was 40 and 68 respectively. The Mammoth market is coming out of what is traditionally the slowest period. All told the market is quite stable. The increased condo inventory, the highest it has been since pre-Covid, gives buyers some interesting properties to look at. The condo sellers are a mix of old owners and post-2020 owners. Many are “turn-key” and ready for STR activity and/or owner usage. The really hungry local agents will keep pounding for price reductions and some of these properties may eventually become really good buys especially considering their condition. Attractive and accurate pricing is likely to be the key to getting a property sold in the second half of 2025. Some owner financing could be enticing too

Market Updates and News

The Fourth of July weekend has come and gone and Mammoth is well into the summer tourism season. The Independence Day parade remains the best and most well attended event on the Mammoth calendar. This year was no exception. The crowd dissipated Saturday and almost totally cleared out by Sunday afternoon. The windy and breezy conditions of the period finally settled down to nice summer weather this weekend. But so far, it looks like tourism traffic will be on the relative light side this summer. This means it will be an especially great time to be in Mammoth. It also begs the question; why do we continue to spend so much on marketing when it can’t outpace the macro economic conditions? I think it is called addiction.

Slower signs of tourism and a room temperature real estate market haven’t slowed any of Mammoth’s construction projects. If anything, everyone has gotten out of the way. The grading at Rockspring is completed and they are already pouring concrete. They want the garage/foundation up by winter. The workforce housing at The Parcel (photo at the bottom) is ahead of them and there are now over 100 of the pre-built “boxes” down at the Airport waiting to be delivered to the site for assembly. The Limelight is shaping up. The Reserve is almost finished framing the final units. And on and on.

The local media basically missed, and non-reported, on the removal of the “sale of public lands” provisions in the Big Beautiful Bill (after they made it earth-ending headline news). The opposition was apparently significant. It was a misguided and overwhelming proposition, but the idea of selling off some small parcels to help alleviate workforce/affordable housing is a great idea. Many resort communities simply don’t have the land for this development yet have plenty of adjacent, less than stellar public land that is currently unavailable. Mammoth was lucky that The Parcel (the old Shady Rest parcel) was put aside many years ago with that vision. And it is right in the middle of town. Hopefully there are some sort of spill-over efforts to address this specific need. It really does make sense. And without some 20-year land exchange process. Politics aside, most people don’t realize that the current President’s father developed thousands of workforce housing units in New York City. It was his forte. The window of opportunity to implement these types of sales may be short.

Airbnb may be trying to create more “experiences” for their guests, but they appear to be creating more nightmares for their hosts. They recently announced new payments programs and the new structure makes it easier for guests to book without paying in full, and easier to cancel. The larger trend for hosts: “Airbnb is no longer just a platform that connects hosts and guests. It’s becoming a financial middleman that controls how and when you get paid.” The conjecture is that hosts will eventually be more scrutinizing of guests.

My Mammoth Real Estate Q&A column in the holiday issue of The Sheet was Tale of Two Properties—Condos Versus Homes and it brought some interesting comments. Many didn’t have a good grasp on the comparisons.

Noteworthy Sales

A Westin Monache 2 bedroom / 2 bath closed for $1,140,000. I like the second floor location because you don’t have to get in the elevator to go to the pool, spas and fitness rooms. I hope the new owner realizes the unit sits adjacent to the project’s dumpsters. Even with the good soundproofing in the Westin structure, it can get loud when the trash trucks come.

Other Real Estate News

Scam-like behavior is accelerating in the real estate field and real estate brokers and agents are being targeted too. There is a recent, nice overview of the latest on deeds.com, titled First Phishing, Now Quishing. In the past few months I’ve personally experienced some of the agent focused scams and I’ve had discussions with others who have experienced it. And I have no doubt that others have been part of scam attempts and didn’t even know what was going on. The volume of agent scams might coincide with the volume of the individual’s presence on the searchable internet and social media. I’ve experienced it via what appears to be AI generated phone calls, text messages and emails. Welcome to the future.

For many years, just as a due course of business, I have done an online search of anyone I am communicating with for the first time (or at some point early in the process). Anyone with the ability to purchase a property in Mammoth should have some sort of online presence. Today it is additionally valuable to weed-out any scams. Some of these scam attempts almost look legitimate because the reverse lookup of the mobile phone number is verifiable. But soon it is obvious that the originating phone number is a spoof and the person’s identity is dubious. But more on this later.

The scams are affecting real estate owners too. I recently discussed the subject of title fraud or title theft in this forum. The advertising for title theft services appears to be increasing, so I can only assume it is being successful at increasing customer numbers. As more facets of AI become exposed, I am seeing additional angles for title theft. One of the critical points to title fraud is a bogus Notary stamp and acknowledgment. I was a Notary Public for many years, and back in the days before “mobile notaries” were thing (being a Notary was an old school courtesy to the clients of my firm). Thinking about the process, creating a fraudulent notarization of a grant or quitclaim deed in this day-and-age should be rather easy. Replicating any notary’s handwriting and “style” from a previous recording could make it look quite authentic (and examples are readily available online). Far easier with some AI help.

As I reported months ago, a fraudulent deed in California is considered “void or voidable.” But it becomes a real hassle for any victim. I would think any lender that funded a loan on the property for the fraudulent owner would have a problem too. According to Grok “Real estate title fraud in California is a serious and escalating issue, with the state leading the nation in cases and losses due to its lucrative property market and vulnerable populations. The financial and emotional impact on victims, particularly seniors, is profound, and the increasing sophistication of scams, aided by technology, exacerbates the problem. California leads the nation in real estate fraud cases. A 2023 study commissioned by Anidjar and Levine reported 1,583 real estate fraud cases in California, far surpassing other states, with financial losses totaling $24.8 million.”

My math says this is a little less than $16,000 in damages per case. This could be the average cost of having an attorney clean up the mess. The “void or voidable” appears to be a good thing for California property owners because high property values, and many properties with little or no debt (including many seniors), make it prime territory for fraudsters.

Grok also states that many County recorders are using outdated software and systems that are prime for AI deception (if you only knew how antiquated Mono County has been). But some counties (including Orange County) are now implementing notification systems to alert property owners of deed transfers. Lenders and title companies have to look at recent deed transfers with a more scrutinizing eye.

Ultimately, and especially in this new AI age, monitoring your title from time-to-time at the county’s website is recommended. And those real estate solicitation postcards also (typically) display the currently titled owner on the mailing label, so keep an eye on that. Others may sign up for one of the heavily advertised monitoring programs that include a level of legal assistance in the case of a fraudulent transfer. Eventually I expect new levels of vetting by county recorders, title companies, lenders, etc..

The broker and agent focused scams are a little more suspicious and somewhat strange. There has been the “vacant land scam” going around for the past ~18 months. The scammer is pretending to be the owner and wants a “quick sale.” I’ve experienced this, one came through email and the other was through a phone call. The phone call was weird to say the least. About three minutes into the call I realized I was talking to a robot. I’m guessing that the voice was actually pretty close to the real owner’s voice. I played along but the “seller” eventually couldn’t answer my questions. I later did a drive-by on this “owner’s” lot and there was a contractor there just starting a new foundation.

And one lot I started doing research on, I discovered that it had been listed several months before and then was canceled shortly thereafter (it is a south county property). The cancellation remarks in the MLS stated that the agent believed it to be fraudulent. What’s really weird is that a couple months later it was listed again by a Mammoth agent and now shows as a real closing. I’m waiting to hear the ”the rest of the story.” And just the other day, one of Mammoth’s “heavy hitters” (if you are an owner you get post cards from her all the time) told me she had gone to contract (and a new escrow) on a lot with what appeared to be a fraudulent seller. The existence of vacant land, especially single-family lots, in the region probably put us onto the radar of these scammers.

And lately, I have received text message inquiries from “buyers” interested in Mammoth. I haven’t figured out what the angle is. They purport to be cash buyers and want to close quickly, and appear to have little knowledge about the market. Sometimes the phone number matches to the name records found online. The conversations go off on weird tangents and I eventually disengage. I can only surmise that the agents who are heavy into social media get these weird scammer activities at a higher level. And again, I’m not sure what the strategy is. Could just be some bored bot out there.

Like the article states, we all need to be “fraud aware.” The threat of wire fraud has not gone away—don’t follow any instructions, pick up the phone and verify. And the article warns to watch those QR codes.

Meanwhile, maybe AI can fully clone me in the future and I can have intelligent real estate discussions with people, whether on the phone, Zoom, email or texting, and not even be around. And maybe your clone can talk to my clone?

Thanks for reading!

** Closed sale data is compiled from in-house files and public records.

Mammoth Real Estate Sales Report – July 13, 2025