Mammoth Real Estate Q&A — To Rabble, Or Not To Rabble??

This Mammoth Real Estate Q&A appears in the Labor Day Weekend 2025 issue of The Sheet.

Q: It looks likes tourism is down in Mammoth Lakes (and many other places too). Do you anticipate that this will bring local real estate values down too? What other interesting themes are you seeing in the market?

A: From the street level, tourism in the summer of 2025 is ostensibly slower. I noted this trend starting last fall. I still hear people complaining about the crowds. And the local real estate market is indeed slower. Transaction volumes are down. The overall number of inquiries is down. Some members of the local real estate industry are enjoying the slowdown after the last five years. However, the local market is far from dead and there are some notable trends.

The inventory of listings is up, but not to an extreme. Okay, year-over-year the listing volume (condo and homes) is up about 30%. This may sound like a lot, but the numbers from a year ago weren’t that large to begin with. And relative, to say the late 1990s, not even close. Today’s condo inventory is less than 130. In the late 1990s the Labor Day Weekend would see ~350 condos on the market. And the current inventory includes new (and unfinished) units at the Limelight and The Reserve. It also includes previously un-marketed units at Outbound.

The single-family listings are up, but the inventory is cluttered with some very stale listings in the high-end, some greatly compromised properties on the low-end, and sellers who will sell only “if they get their price.” One of the notable trends has been the strong market for decent homes around $1M. As winter approaches, this market is likely to be even stronger.

Unsurprisingly, condos through the whole price range in Snowcreek are selling. Historically, they are popular “summer sales.” There have been some rather exceptional Snowcreek properties come to the market—including some with incredible locations and settings. And a little surprising, condos with close proximity to the chair lifts, aka ski-in and ski-out, that are typically “winters sales”, have been selling well through this summer. This could accelerate as we head towards the winter season. And almost oddly, there are increasing “bargains” in the single-family vacant lot market. This is a “thin” part of the Mammoth market but some quality (very buildable) lots are seeing price reductions. There is no doubt the high cost of construction has frustrated some of these once hopeful owners.

A downturn in tourism in Mammoth may be completing an interesting cycle for many long-time residents, second homeowners and visitors. And almost laughingly, I hear about it frequently from my peers. It might just be a sign of growing old. The bottom line is that Mammoth is far more enjoyable with fewer tourists. It was that way many years ago. Back then, there were those who argued for less tourism over the years, but business owners and others in the community who were taking risks wanted more tourism, more business. It was about survival. The Town certainly bought in. And the real estate interests certainly wanted it. The boom era of local print media (pre-The Sheet) was all about real estate advertising and “Good Times”.

The Mammoth community has spent great effort and dollars to attract high levels of tourism since the incorporation in 1984 (Mammoth was especially sleepy in the summer back then). Mammoth envisioned having things like regular music events, ice rinks, theaters, bike paths and on and on (workforce housing wasn’t an issue). All of it would certainly bring increased prosperity. And it did. For a price. Today, local business owners don’t seem as desperate or always on the verge of going out of business. Nobody seems to be in the “survival mode” like so much of the past. Most Mammoth business owners who close their businesses today do so because they are simply tired of snow or realize that they have sacrificed too much of their recreation time.

But to answer the question, less tourism isn’t likely to make local real estate less valuable. It could make it more valuable. It does in my mind. And many past visitors may return to Mammoth if they discover it is less crowded. Is this potentially a new marketing campaign?—“You can come back and enjoy Mammoth, everybody is gone!”  I know the vacations I take are far more enjoyable when there is less demand and fewer people. 

There was a recent CNN article on over-tourism in Europe. The headline read “the locals are getting fed up, they don’t want the rabble anymore” (I had to check the dictionary because I wanted to make sure what “rabble” actually meant—a disorderly crowd; a mob). Mammoth had its share in the past few years. Europeans are especially blaming social media for highlighting certain locations or attractions, and now the crowds are unbearable. One quote from a local resident, “You can recover, but it takes time.” Another, “Its much easier for a destination to control its growth rather than repair it afterwards.” Maybe Mammoth is in repair mode.

Sure, there will be some STR owners who are squeezed financially. We’re already seeing some of this. They overestimated their revenues and/or underestimated their expenses. The Airbnb fad of the past few years wasn’t so profound here in Mammoth. STR was here long before the trend and will be here for many years to come. And some STR owners have quit (sold) simply because running an STR can become incredibly time consuming and was far beyond what they expected, or wanted.

The current STR market has evolved into an interesting position. If lower revenue motivates the sale of an existing STR (it is already happening at a minor level), new buyers have an opportunity to purchase a remodeled property—“ready to use and/or rent”. Many have been improved very nicely and quite thoughtfully. Buyers get to finance the improvements and avoid the time, hassle and expense of putting the property into prime condition. Savvy buyers are recognizing this opportunity and the value of such properties, especially if they can get it at the right price.

More fortunate STR owners who aren’t forced to sell have more access and availability to their property (maybe they have shot at the prime powder days). After all, usage is still the primary reason to own an STR in Mammoth. 

Interestingly, there have been some recent listings of Studio units at Mountain Shadows. These are “turn-key” properties in nice STR condition with proven track records of successful rental. They can be purchased in the mid-to-high $300,000 range. These sized units in this project have a solid history of STR success. Obviously, the ROI was better when they could be purchased for less than $200,000. But again, it is about usage here in Mammoth. 

What really is somewhat fascinating is comparing these units to the similar Studio units at the Westin Monache that typically sell for $50-75,000 more. They are similar in size and utility. With one you are tucked away downtown and are mingled with plenty of local residents. The other, well you’re at the Westin, in the Village. The hotel shuttle will even take you down to the Gondola so you can avoid the stairs. And the pool is open all winter. The financial numbers (ROI) are probably a push for owning each. But they are completely different experiences. Of course, the guests pay more to stay at the Westin. But in the market, this adds little value to the real estate.

Meanwhile, the Mammoth market is not seeing any significant levels of stress. Just look to the Village and you will see the hotels under construction. The marginal buyers of the past five years still made real downpayments (does anybody remember negative amortization loans?). Whether we like it or not, the “haves” still have strong interest in Mammoth and with the Aspenification of town this isn’t likely to change. Mammoth is surviving, maybe thriving, on the wealth gap our country is experiencing. The IKON Pass has turned fresh snow days almost manic. “No friends on a powder day” has become “all fiends on a powder day”. This exuberant level of specific tourism transcends the general trend.

And lastly, the emergence of the new “buyer broker” representation rules a year ago combined with a slower market have made for some interesting market dynamics. I doubt if many consumers have taken note. The agents representing buyers under the new rules are still being compensated for their efforts. The end results haven’t changed, just the structure. Some could argue that the buyer’s agents have taken a more important role in the transaction. Others are suggesting their feet are being held to the fire. And of note, a slower market can create extraordinary motivation for the agents who didn’t save or invest in the recent good times of the market. Buyer beware.

And seller beware too. Many popular seller’s agents have large business related expenses including costly affiliations and referral obligations. Listing agents still have a strong hold on the business environment. Some are reducing (some call it discounting) commissions to remain competitive. Real estate values have risen in so many market that it is easy to justify. But the lower transaction volume and their expenses can create levels of extraordinary motivation. 

All of this is the changing the push and pull of the real estate market and industry. The post-Covid era is gone. In light of lower commissions, sellers can expect stronger pressure from their agent for post-listing price reductions. Almost automatically. “Selling on price” is beginning to once again outrun the classic “selling on features and benefits” in this market. Recent listing cancellations and withdrawals have proven some sellers are rejecting this strategy. More motivated sellers are on-board with this aggressive price discovery. But it won’t uphold values in certain segments of the market.

Soon we’ll be praying for snow and the return of the rabble.

Happy Labor Day!